ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL (website)

Released: March 31, 2006
(This release has been edited for length.)

Surge in Undecided Voters Muddles Midterms
High-profile incumbents below 50%; independents rocking top Texas, Oregon races.

Incumbents around the nation appear in greater jeopardy as the 2006 midterm elections loom, with several sitting governors and senators languishing below 50%, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows. Many incumbents, including some with well-known names, have lost support in recent weeks as the percentage of undecided voters has risen, the survey shows.

The individual polls of election contests in 25 battleground states find five incumbent Democratic governors below the 50% mark and six incumbent Republican governors – all of whom are up for re-election this year - failing to break 50% against challengers. On the Senate side, four GOP incumbents and four Democratic incumbents on this year’s ballots are being held to less than 50% by challengers.

In all the races where the incumbents are below 50%, their job approval ratings hover near 40% or lower.

In several of those cases, challengers still trail the incumbents by significant margins; that being said, any incumbent below 50% is facing political trouble in an election year, as undecided voters historically tend to break for the challenger.

Incumbent Governors Below 50%

Napolitano, AZ
Blagojevich, IL
Granholm, MI
Kulongoski, OR
Rendell, PA
Doyle (WI)
Schwarzenegger (CA)
Perdue (GA)
Ehrlich (MD)
Pawlenty (MN)
Perry (TX)

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Survey Finds Strong Independent Challenges in Texas, Oregon

The surveys also find independent candidates having significant impacts on gubernatorial races in Texas and Oregon, where candidates from both major parties find themselves well below 40% with the entry of independents.

In Texas, the independent candidacies of country singer/detective author Kinky Friedman and Republican state comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, the mother of White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan, holding incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry to 36% and leaving Democratic challenger Chris Bell, at 21%, in the unenviable position of trying to avoid a third- or fourth-place finish—which is a distinct possibility, with Friedman at 19% and Keeton Strayhorn at 17%.

In Oregon, meanwhile, independent challenger Ben Westlund, a state senator who bolted from the GOP over concerns that the party had drifted too far to the right, has changed the dynamic of the race. While the unpopular incumbent Governor Ted Kulongoski led Republican challengers by double-digits in head-to-head match-ups, the survey finds Kulongoski (or other potential Democratic challengers) locked in virtual dead heats in the low 30s against all likely Republicans in a three-way contest, with Westlund’s campaign, still in its infancy, polling in the teens.

The interactive survey is a package of 25 statewide polls conducted simultaneously to measure Senate and gubernatorial races in key battleground states across the country. Polls were conducted March 22 through 27. Each state carries its own margin of error. This is the fifth round of polling in a series by the Wall Street Journal Online and Zogby Interactive. The project continues at regular intervals through the year.

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(3/31/2006)