Oregon voters face the most unpredictable
governor's race in 16 years, in large part because it won't be the typical
head-to-head matchup of Democrat versus Republican.
Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski and Republican Ron Saxton have to do
more than campaign against each other. They also face an unusual challenge
from state Sen. Ben Westlund, a Republican-turned-independent who hopes to
scramble the election by stealing votes from both parties.
"Anyone who says they know how this is going to come out is kidding you,"
said Mark Wiener, a Democratic strategist from Portland. "At a certain
point, people are going to have to figure out when to sharpen their knives
and who to point them at."
The candidates and their allies are beginning to wield those knives to stand
out from the crowd.
The day after the primary, Kulongoski likened Saxton and Westlund to two
peas in a Republican pod, and said he didn't see much difference between
them. Westlund began running radio commercials that portrayed voters turning
away in disgust from the major political parties. And top Republicans
predicted Westlund's liberal views on gay rights, taxes and health care
would split the Democratic vote and help elect Saxton.
The fall ballot probably will also include candidates representing a full
slate of minor parties, from the Pacific Green Party, which will nip at
Kulongoski's left flank, to the far-right Constitution Party, which aims to
peel votes from Saxton.
Oregon hasn't seen anything like this in a governor's race since 1990, when
independent Al Mobley ran as a staunchly anti-abortion conservative and took
13 percent of the vote. He helped tilt the election to Democrat Barbara
Roberts, who started as the underdog to Republican Dave Frohnmayer, who is
now president of the University of Oregon.
Frohnmayer boxed in
Mobley's candidacy hamstrung Frohnmayer, who had to choose between reaching
out to the middle or to the right.
"It made him tentative," said Donna Zajonc, Frohnmayer's former campaign
manager. "We would have allowed Dave's natural ability to work with a broad
spectrum of people to really surface, but we were in danger of sparking more
of a conservative uprising."
Roberts knew she could win the election with a plurality -- she eventually
got just less than 46 percent of the vote -- and felt free to be herself and
not hedge on issues. For example, she said she supported closing the Trojan
Nuclear Plant, a controversial position at the time that endeared her with
the Democratic base and won points for her candor.
Now, Roberts said, "the thing that's going to be interesting is whether you
see Ron and Ben splitting the Republican vote, or are Ted and Ben going to
split the progressive vote."
A GOP view
Brady Adams, a Grants Pass Republican and former Senate president, said he
doesn't see how Westlund can peel many votes away from Saxton, particularly
since the other Republicans in the race quickly closed ranks behind their
new nominee. "Westlund takes us from the possible to the probable," Adams
said. "I don't see how he can clobber Saxton, but boy, he sure hurts
Kulongoski."
Republicans have been bolstered in their view by a March poll by Zogby
International that showed Westlund pulling just more than 10 percent of the
vote, almost all from voters who otherwise would stay with the Democrats.
But Lisa Grove, a pollster working for Kulongoski, said the Zogby poll was
flawed and that "our polling shows that Westlund is pretty much nowhere" at
this point.
Grove said the Kulongoski campaign would continue to highlight the
conservative side of Westlund's record, particularly when it comes to such
issues as the environment and workers' rights.
Westlund rejects the idea that he's a Mobley-type spoiler who will tilt the
election.
"Radical middle"
Instead, he said his "radical middle" candidacy will attract a broad
spectrum of voters seeking strong leadership.
"Come November, that's what I think this election will turn on, not whether
you're a Democrat, Republican or independent," he said. "Oregonians will
vote for that individual they think is best capable of building a coalition
to solve these problems we face."
Right now, however, Westlund has a long way to go to build the political
base, name familiarity and organization that comes to the party nominees.
"If he can't raise the money, it's not going to matter that much," said
Robert Eisinger, a political scientist at Lewis & Clark College. He said
Westlund has benefited from a media buzz around his candidacy -- he had
three local TV stations waiting to interview him Friday when he opened a
campaign office in Portland -- but still has to gain more than 18,000
signatures to qualify for the ballot, and must prove that he has a credible
chance to win.
Cautious approach
Perhaps for that reason, Saxton has carefully avoided saying much about
Westlund.
"I'm not going to be talking about him until we see if he is really a
candidate" on the fall ballot, Saxton said after the primary.
Felix Schein, Saxton's campaign manager, said it is too early to know how
Westlund will affect the race.
"There's a lot of gamesmanship right now and a lot of tough talk, but none
of the campaigns know what is going on," he said. "It is pointless now to
make any assumptions about how the voters will perceive the candidates."
However, the crowded race has given new encouragement to the Constitution,
Libertarian and Pacific Green parties, all of which can put a candidate on
the November ballot.
The Libertarians will choose a nominee at a June 3 convention and have at
least two candidates interested in running, according to Richard Burke, the
party's executive director. He noted that one of them is Deborah Andrews,
who picked up nearly 38 percent of the vote Tuesday running against Susan
Castillo, Oregon's superintendent of public instruction.
The abortion issue
Constitution Chairman Bob Ekstrom said his party will have the only
candidate on the ballot who wants to completely stop abortion. Saxton said
he supports a woman's right to an abortion but has said he would support
some restrictions.
Ekstrom said his party has a candidate lined up, but he declined to name who
it is in advance of his party's convention, also set for June 3.
Joe Keating, the Green Party nominee, said he's planning his party's most
extensive gubernatorial campaign. He said his own and Westlund's candidacy
seriously would erode Kulongoski's chances of winning and could spur
progressive groups to support the Greens.
"The chaos we will be able to generate at that point will be a wonder to
behold," said Keating, who added, "My bet: It's going to be a free-for-all."
Harry Esteve of The Oregonian staff contributed to this report