Close race for governor takes shape
Each hopeful has story, strategy, chance to win

By James Sinks / The Bulletin
June 24, 2006

SALEM - One is a retired state auditor who pledges to streamline government.

Another is an environmental activist who thinks corporations should pay higher taxes.

Two are lawyers, one is a former television personality and one is an agribusinessman who made millions selling bull semen.

In all, Oregon voters could choose from as many as six candidates for governor this fall in a race that's shaping up as a complicated and wide-open affair with contenders - and potential spoilers - from across the political map.

Each brings to the race a compelling life story and a political niche - and each of them sees a scenario in which he or she could emerge as the next governor come November.

"Our campaign is organized and has a game plan to win," said Joe Keating, a longtime environmental advocate who is the nominee of the Pacific Green Party. "All it will take is 35 percent."

Mary Starrett, a former Portland morning show host and opponent of legalized abortion who is the Constitution Party candidate, offered similar sentiments.

"There are six candidates in this race and that chops things up. It is entirely possible to win this race."

Five of the six are already on the ballot, led by Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski, who is seeking re-election, and Portland attorney Ron Saxton, the Republican nominee.

They are joined by third-party candidates Keating, Starrett and Libertarian Richard Morley, the former auditor.

State Sen. Ben Westlund, I-Tumalo, the cattle genetics seller, hasn't qualified yet but says it is a foregone conclusion. He plans to collect the 18,368 signatures he needs to qualify as an independent candidate, but his deadline isn't until late August.

A contentious race

Russ Dondero, political science professor emeritus at Pacific University in Forest Grove, said the winner will most likely be Kulongoski, Saxton or Westlund, who is positioned in the political center.

"With the entry of Ben Westlund, we are going to have a barnburner of a governor's race," Dondero said.

The three other minor-party candidates - Starrett, Keating and Morley - will not win, but could decide who ultimately does, he said.

That's because those candidates, depending on how appealing they prove to be, could attract the support of undecided voters who want to make a political statement.

The last time there were six candidates on the ballot was 1998, but then-Gov. John Kitzhaber was favored and coasted to a second term.

Portland pollster Tim Hibbits said Westlund will be the wild card in 2006 because he could attract significant support from both sides of the aisle.

Starrett and Morley could attract some more conservative votes away from Saxton, while Keating could divert more liberal voters from the governor, he said.

At the same time, the governor must deal with low approval ratings and Saxton must overcome an anti-Republican mood that's brewing nationally, Hibbits said.

"We have never had this many candidates in a race with this many potential dynamics," he said.

If nothing else, the array of choices might help energize an electorate that was clearly uninspired in the May primary, when turnout was only 38 percent.

But it is too soon to say, he said.

"Going against that possibility is cynicism among many voters that it doesn't matter who they vote for, they still get the same ... government," he said.

A tough road for the incumbent

Conventional wisdom suggests Kulongoski should be the front-runner because he is the incumbent - as well as the Democratic nominee in a state that has sent only Democrats to Mahonia Hall, the governor's mansion, for the past 20 years.

But the governor's popularity has ebbed in the past year, and he didn't even earn 60 percent support from his own party in the primary.

He is among the four least popular governors in the nation and the least-popular Democrat, according to independent pollster Survey USA.

And Kulongoski may have handed his opponents a potent campaign weapon last month when he suggested that the state call a six-year "time out" on Oregon's unique tax "kicker" refunds. Instead of sending unanticipated tax collections back to taxpayers, the state could use the money instead to shore up public programs, he said.

Anna Richter Taylor, the spokeswoman for Kulongoski's re-election campaign, said the governor is not dwelling on polls or the "election algebra of who will steal votes from whom."

"We're focused on the governor's vision for moving forward and his accomplishments of the last three years," she said.

Tops on that list is Oregon's economic rebound since Kulongoski took office, she said, pointing to fast-growing Central Oregon as a prime example.

Kulongoski, 65, is a former state legislator, attorney general and Oregon Supreme Court justice, but comes from blue collar roots. He was raised in an orphanage, worked in a steel mill and was a Marine before moving to Oregon in the early 1970s and setting up a Eugene law practice.

But while several recent moves, including suing the Bush administration over roadless area logging, have helped Kulongoski's environmental credentials, he isn't been seen as being as protective as the landscape as his predecessor, Kitzhaber.

Heat from other candidates

And that's helped fuel the candidacy of Keating, 61, a Vietnam veteran and former investment banker who is a former state leader for Greenpeace and the Sierra Club.

Keating thinks the state should hike corporate taxes such as the current minimum of $10 a year, and also is critical of Kulongoski for being an early supporter of the Iraq War.

"In my estimation, the only clarity that I see so far is that Kulongoski is not going to win," he said. "I've just seen the state go downhill on a continued basis, and that's why I'm running, to turn it around."

Dondero, the political science professor emeritus, said Keating could attract voters who supported presidential candidate Ralph Nader - voters who would seem likely to support Kulongoski otherwise.

Saxton also will tap into the discontent with the governor's leadership - and that strategy would be the same whether it's a two-way or a six-way race, said Felix Schein, Saxton's campaign manager.

"Ultimately this will be a race between Ted Kulongoski and Ron Saxton and while all the other candidates in the race will win some votes, we think it is unlikely they will be significant players who will fundamentally alter the outcome," Schein said.

"At the end of the day, this race will be about whether voters want change or if we can do better. That's a question to ask with two candidates, and the question to ask with six."

Saxton, 52, is a successful Portland corporate attorney who leads the state's largest law firm. He grew up in Albany and his only other stint in elected office was on the Portland School Board, so he is running as a government outsider.

He lost the Republican primary in 2002, but in his repeat bid defeated former Republican Party chairman Kevin Mannix and state Sen. Jason Atkinson, R-Central Point, to win the nomination.

Hibbits, the Portland pollster, doesn't share Saxton's view about the limited appeal of third-party candidates.

Starrett, the Constitution Party candidate, in particular, will attract significant numbers of Republican voters if they don't perceive Saxton - who is pro-choice but supports some abortion limits - as conservative enough.

Hibbits doesn't anticipate that Starrett will receive 13 percent of the vote like third-party candidate Al Mobley did in 1990, however.

Mobley was fielded as a conservative alternative to pro-choice Republican Dave Frohnmayer - and is credited with taking enough support to swing the race to Democrat Barbara Roberts.

"But (Starrett) doesn't need to get anywhere near that to be a problem for Ron Saxton, because all of her votes are going to becoming from his hide," Hibbits said.

Starrett, 51, of rural Yamhill County, said she believes she can win but if not, her candidacy will send a message to Republicans that they need to remain true to moral principles and nominate anti-abortion candidates.

She was a bubbly morning show host on Portland's KATU-TV for 17 years until 1997, when her contract wasn't renewed.

Starrett has worked in radio and last year started a new anti-abortion lobbying entity in Salem as an alternative to Oregon Right-to-Life, which angered her by supporting pro-abortion candidates.

But her candidacy will not focus on that single issue. She believes the state needs to encourage more education choices, such as creating a voucher plan so students can attend private schools with tax dollars. She opposes state aid for illegal immigrants, and opposes the Iraq War.

Morley, 69, the former auditor, was the Libertarian Party candidate for Secretary of State in 2004. He lives in Tigard. He was not available for comment, but Richard Burke, the chairman of the state Libertarian Party, said he expects Morley could match or exceed the 5 percent showing by Tom Cox, the Libertarian in the 2004 governor's race.

"There is conventional wisdom but there is always also the unexpected," he said.

Burke said Morley could appeal to both disgruntled Democrats and Republicans because he will focus both on fiscal discipline and keeping government out of personal decisions such as assisted suicide.

The wild card

But it is Westlund, 56, a statehouse veteran and cancer survivor who decided to abandon the Republican Party in February out of frustration with partisan politics, seems most likely to have bipartisan appeal, Hibbits said.

"Westlund is not running ideologically, he's running up the broad middle," he said. "To my mind, he could plausibly script a way to win - it's a long shot, but he could script it."

Westlund has a pro-business and pro-agriculture voting record, supports gun rights and is pushing for incentives for alternative energy development, which will appeal to Republicans.

But he also favors civil unions for same-sex couples and in 2005 was named the Legislature's "consensus builder" by environmentalists.

He is the only candidate from east of the Cascades.

Westlund is hitching his campaign to a plan to overhaul Oregon's notoriously volatile tax structure, and proposes slashing income and property taxes and instituting some kind of a sales tax.

He said the next governor could be elected with 30 percent of the vote if the three "splinter candidates" combine to attract 15 percent.

"The more they take, the more it's anybody's race," he said.

Reacting to Dondero's remark that the race will be a "barnburner" if he gets the signatures to qualify, Westlund said he'll have them by the end of July.

"We're getting on the ballot," he predicted, "so get some asbestos underwear and hold on tight.".

James Sinks can be reached at 503-566-2839 or at jamess@cyberis.net.