A changed race faces Westlund
Independent vows to fight on

By James Sinks / The Bulletin
May 20, 2006

SALEM - So much for conventional wisdom.

Months ago, political pundits said state Sen. Ben Westlund of Tumalo would have the best chance of winning an independent bid for governor in a three-way race with the major party candidates from 2002, Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski and Republican Kevin Mannix.

But that will not be the lineup this fall.

In a low turnout primary Tuesday, Democrats again chose Kulongoski as their nominee, but Republicans turned to Portland attorney Ron Saxton.

Previously, the theory was that Westlund wouldn't fare as well in a field with Saxton - who was once considered a moderate who would appeal to the same voters as Westlund.

So is Westlund reconsidering? "Not at all," he said Thursday.

"I'm not the kind of person who goes three-quarters of the way up the mountain and then stops and turns around."

In fact, with the primary in the rearview mirror, his campaign is shifting up a gear. He hit the air Friday with a new radio ad to help raise name awareness and also opened a Portland campaign office.

Paid canvassers will begin hitting the streets this coming Thursday with petitions in the effort to collect the needed signatures to put Westlund on the ballot.

He has until Aug. 29 to submit 18,368 names, and is nearing the 2,000 mark, with petitions submitted by more than 390 volunteers. He'll also have booths at summer fairs and festivals across the state, where volunteers and staffers will hand out campaign materials and collect signatures.

"People can speculate over who would have been better to come out of the Republican primary, but what I do know is this: We had a record low turnout on both sides, the lowest in 46 years," Westlund said. "And what that says very clearly is that at the top of the ticket, the statewide candidates for governor did not inspire confidence or capture the imagination of the Oregon voter."

In addition, fears that Westlund might have to jostle for the political middle were allayed somewhat because Saxton made a series of conservative campaign pledges that helped him earn the Republican nomination but might turn off centrists.

Those include signing a "no new tax" pledge, vowing to oppose civil unions and saying the state should cut off any services, including public education, to undocumented workers and their children.

Bill Lunch, a political scientist at Oregon State University, said Westlund could have the same kind of maverick appeal as Ross Perot - but Perot collected only about 25 percent of the Oregon vote in 1992, which was not enough to win.

With rare exceptions, a third-party or independent candidate gets a small percentage of votes, acting as spoiler and tipping the race, he said.

And even though Saxton moved to the right in the primary, he still will be perceived as a moderate by many voters, Lunch said.

"It's hard to see the Saxton nomination as anything but bad news for Westlund," he said.

Still, both parties appear to see Westlund as a threat.

Neel Pender, director of the Democratic Party of Oregon, said the governor's campaign is going to tell voters that Westlund and Saxton are both Republicans in the mold of President Bush, but in different packaging.

For instance, Westlund's history includes support of Measure 36, which outlawed gay marriage; low-to-middling ratings for his environmental votes and a stint as the campaign chairman for Mannix in 2002.

"Ben Westlund has been a Republican his whole life and at the end of the day, he's a Republican," Pender said.

Kulongoski has concerns of his own, however, including some of the lowest approval ratings in the nation, according to polling firm Survey USA.

State Republican leaders, meanwhile, say Westlund's support of universal health care and civil unions for same-sex couples make him appeal more to Democrats.

"It's interesting and ironic," Westlund said. "They just don't get it that I'm an independent and as such have appeal on both sides of the aisle. They are defining me as what I already am, which is the moderate in the middle."

Westlund, an agribusinessman who dropped his Republican affiliation in February, has political leanings that would both appeal to and appall the two main parties.

He supports gun rights and has a business-friendly voting record, but also was named the assembly's "consensus builder" by environmental groups in 2005.

He is advocating for a fiscal reform package that includes lowering income taxes and property taxes - offsetting the lost revenue with a sales tax.

The new radio commercial makes a subtle dig at both Kulongoski and Saxton while also trying to raise Westlund's name identify: His name is uttered six times in a 30-second spot.

In it, two people are having a conversation about the election, opening with a woman saying she isn't excited by either candidate that came out of the primary.

Poll numbers by Zogby International in April showed Westlund would fetch 12 to 14 percent of the vote, and that's when his campaign was keeping a low profile, he said. "That's where most independents end up in November, and we were already there in April."

"The conventional wisdom has changed," he said.

Westlund petitions
* Independent gubernatorial candidate Ben Westlund of Tumalo must collect 18,368 signatures to qualify for the Nov. 7 general election ballot.
* Petitions can be down-loaded from his Web site, www.benwestlund.com, or obtained by calling 382-8481.
* Petitions also are available at his campaign headquarters at 1195 N.W. Wall St.

James Sinks can be reached at 503-566-2839 or at jamess@cyberis.net.